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Political Analyst Carl Calabrese

Mar 23, 2014|

On Trump, Midterms & More

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Let's talk more now though about this hold draft Donald Trump effort. Trump -- we -- Friday said he's not running then later in the week Carl Paladino said I'm not running either but I'm still going to try to draft Donald Trump. Bit earlier you heard from the -- where the chair of the Erie county Republican Party. Let's bring in an analyst who might not have to be as diplomatic as -- might not have to deal with as many. Constituencies there Carlo calabrese is with us Karl good morning. It. What's going on here and how harmful do you think it is too. Party unity is there's still time to pull things together or is this disruptive in your book. What age could be disruptive it goes on too long I believe in talking to Republicans. They had. They want him and they want to coalesce around -- Esther -- a -- garrido was seen by most party leaders they barely competent county executive. He's very competent candidate. Our property doesn't have money and that's a major problem course. I -- at the party folks are important to oppose by the target to would just assume now with the all episode behind us. -- -- Focusing his biggest problem and that -- lack of money and and to take him into the battle field. Properly armed with enough money to run a equality campaign that's what the feedback I'm getting in any more Republican I'm talking to. See the proper effort now is simply. The continuation of the effort to Donald Trump in the news promoting Donald Trump it's not about you know a series after a serious look at -- about. Four years ago it was -- to stay in 2010 when Carl Paladino announced he was running for governor and that was April 5 this year Easter is a little further down on the calendar. Is that pretty much a drop dead date at what point does this become. Too much of a distraction too much of a sideshow or does it just become that automatically dismiss it move on. Well I think we're getting their employer to smoking in movies are. I think party leaders are our -- to -- during the month of April. A really set the stage for the -- convention and launching the history you know campaign and in a proper way and an effective way. They're -- you know there is sticking its its -- two. -- to get into the next phase of this and it is. The government -- so I think most party professional and are watching the calendar. Although look it would need to be gone. And I think most would reach a conclusion that the bit -- is that it shouldn't be the party's candidate for governor so you can kind of environment in which you are to do to watcher -- When I think of draft movements I usually think of it on the national scene probably mostly for president have you ever seen a draft movement successful at the state level. Let's even ask it differently have you ever seen a draft movement work at all. No on interrupt I'm thinking in my memory my political -- time winner draft movement has has been successful. You know it's. The days of the the conventions where deals are made and decisions are made to prepare rose at the last minute that they battle for forty years. It's just there's almost a thing of the past. Likely candidate you gotta get W characters you've you've got to stay true intention of being a series Kennedy what appears support and didn't get into the into the battle as quickly as possible. -- idea that somebody's gonna come out the very last minute -- And sweep the convention to launch a campaign. You know -- -- -- -- -- opponent on the bike on air and market. Let let's move the conversation briefly to national stuff. In some ways that sort of draft movement is under way with Hillary Clinton. There is a shadow group out there of supporters who are setting up the infrastructure. Where -- setting up the political action committees even though she hasn't officially announced he could almost call that a draft effort now. I don't think I -- -- use the word draft for Hillary Clinton's. Positioned to date I I think it's a little early most. Campaigns don't really began in earnest until after the mid term election I think. There could be a number of democratic candidates Joseph Biden and number of Democrat governors where are looking at the rates that are leopard I don't. After the mid term elections this November and so like I think what you -- is it. -- political political appoint people coming together beginning to put together the infrastructure well potential Clinton run there's a -- and don't just point. But I wouldn't call -- regrets I think there's there's going to be. Numerous candidates and it should learn from the president and you're gonna you're gonna get a feel for that post mid terms. You just mentioned the mid terms last week on this program -- trendy who have helped write the dictionary of American politics. He's an analyst with real clear politics dot com. He predicted that the Republicans hold the house and right now look like they might probably pick up the senate do you agree. I do of Republicans could very well pick up some seats in the house and right now. Everything is written their -- if electoral helped today I believe they take control of the senate it's not so today's so. You've got to put their kid got in but -- all ever would play up for the public interest law. Democrats are kind of victims of brought success back in 2008 when they -- so many senate seats there how are now. You got got 33 races the center. Sixteen are called competitive and of those of of those 1614. Are now held by Democrats so they're sending an awful lot of ground. Got what they were probably six pick up to -- you got four states where both McCain and Romney won. My double digits in the -- states are Arkansas Montana. South Dakota and watch urging you got three more states that are in place Alaska. Louisiana and North Carolina I -- employee meeting. Six months ago they were considered. We elect the Democrats they've now moved into the tossup column by nuclear politics -- And then what the Republicans have been able to do is big and able to attract. Very attractive candidates. In -- stated that the Democrats never thought they were going to be in trouble. I'm in Michigan the secretary of state Republican name link is now running five ports and head of the democratic and open seat -- -- raising him. In foreign. In Virginia Ed Gillespie. Is wearing a strong record in Colorado is fairly strong encouragement. Represent what their state already has declared against. Senator Udall and is even within in the polls and -- a New Hampshire. Scott Brown saying that he would move into New Hampshire airport actually it in each of these cases. The democratic incumbent is below 50% in the whole debt is clearly very dangerous period and -- and think counseling -- to president. If you can you reelection here. 78 months you're under 50%. In the polls. Edit that edit the target for the opposition party true to really make you. You know political -- and efforts so. In addition to the normal it to Democrats spot they'd be weak you know all of a sudden you've got for its opening up. Where they're very big if if they can win and they're probably gonna have to spend. A lot more time and money than they originally calculated. I don't know if we can do this or -- but I'm gonna try it we've got to about -- -- left here and someone who called in on this very topic 8030930s. And number. John it -- talk a little bit about the republicans' chances in the senate let's bring him on and -- go ahead John go ahead you're on together. They -- Carol LA LIC. A different different that picture this thing I think the media like he could be extremely left. What we biased take the ball will use that on a single amount predators. Thousands of other newspapers like the ball on democratic crap all right Chester I really think they're gonna go out. In hammer the Republicans. And I don't think Republicans can win the strategy that -- panel. Intense hockey. Who if you get contaminate the nomination from the Republican meg limit -- -- Saturday at two part Europe they're throwing against from the Kentucky. What if it's -- here and went right out Mitch McConnell behind him all likely that the media. John we're gonna -- We're gonna cut you loose in the house response all right Carl. The that the media there always has to be dealt with secure Republican is going to be that buyers -- leader might take our. If the Republicans are able to keep the focus on obamacare and the economy they're gonna win and they're gonna win big if the Democrats are able to switch the the playing field issues like income inequity. Normal wage global warming. Which by the -- curious people rank their top ten issues that affect the lives mostly usually -- like 1112 and thirteen but they're able to. And that the Republican debate. And -- that they have interest or shame on the Republicans. And secondly. They'll pick up seats but they won't take controlled senate so wonderful to watch -- -- is what we'll be accommodating issues I think are certain Republican or regular -- Democrat. That would -- and determine who controls senate. Great stuff for at a time Carl thanks for all that. That's -- calabrese Republican media analyst up.