Nov 10, 2013|
Univ of Richmond's Prof. Daniel Pallazollo looks at the Terry McAuliffe victory in Virginia
Automatically Generated Transcript (may not be 100% accurate)
But I wanna delve into one more national race here by a narrow margin Democrat Terry McAuliffe in Virginia. Beat out -- coach -- -- a Tea Party conservative the the attorney general there let's go off to Virginia now. Doctor Daniel -- soloist here he's on the faculty at the University of Richmond in their political science department he's been watching that race. Thanks for joining us -- Yeah. After the the election McAuliffe basically said -- now I've got a template now I've got. The formula. To beat Tea Party conservatives and races across the country. How much -- that's bluster how much that's that's reality. Well it depends on how the Tea Party candidate loans. In this case could -- We noticed being pretty socially conservative court or what amenities. You're attractive person who some of these issues are aggressively from his position as attorney general and so it's not. Simply a matter of being pro -- pro choice it's actually trying to. Try that again the pretty hard and I think that's probably good. The opening it that McAuliffe used to and attacking them during negative race. So we don't I don't think we know that most people here probably think that it's hard to say what the that -- actually it is as far as the Tea Party. So it almost sounds as if you're saying and and don't let me put words -- mouth. That the Tea Party learned as much from this election perhaps says McAuliffe and the Democrats. Well I mean -- -- amid what they get to play with -- but when they learned and I've learned what Russia and I think he -- a lot of folks and department. Really this we have a lot of little more money. Probably to on this stretch that it really wasn't necessarily about. She party as a they do about lack of resource others argue that maybe collegiality. Pushed the social issues too hard and -- focus more fiscal issues that the Tea Party candidate might be just -- the do you just as well. I think that's the question that really can't do it because it was -- pure test case. I can. And it was also less pure too I imagine because there was a heck of a lot of ad spending he wasn't there. I mean an acute balance you know normally see this and -- rates like this meaning basically because that's. You know 34 million dollars compared to call they could -- twenty million. So diluted gross disparity actually given the competitiveness of the race and he had -- in your signature two years of presidential politics which Virginia's but a battleground -- president Obama's that massive amounts of money. Basically finding. Greg your string and turning out voters that. That border fault was available to coach -- that was also part -- -- strategy are still a lot more democratic voters in the states as. Five years ago that -- people aren't any calculation about any election state -- A GOP analyst up here looking at the results on election night said boy. Coach Nellie really did a lot better than expected because of the advertising you spoke of because. Everything going into it. It was thought that he would lose miserably instead of just losing. -- -- Right while YouTube -- -- look at this one is normally. The the party candidate opposite the president wins this off election so and so it could you know should've done better -- and having said that. Because of the and because the gap in the polls. You know you would expect the cost them one by at least five probably eight percentage points. The closeness since it's presumably -- functionally. The effective. Obama care -- -- some would -- and it's a reasonable hypothesis that had the Irish government not -- Well we're two weeks. And that the focus has been on the president's health care -- originally might have pulled it out so I think that's another tactic that people are looking here in net. I'll be a great city and it was really distorted by the source the shutdown and then body -- lot of obamacare so nobody would they'll be no action. But that's an interesting question that's the most people think that we we've got closer as a result of unpopular health care law. Here in New York State a lot of the balloting that that ever gets done and are. On our statewide issues. Usually gets analyzed through the lens of upstate downstate. Everything everything circles around New York City and the rest of us have to pick up the scraps or at least compensate for somehow. Is Virginia the same kind of thing when we'll give DC in the DC suburbs. Well there's no question at Northern Virginia can really -- Virginia politics because there's. There's so many voters in Northern Virginia and because they tend to be very democratic. So I think there's no question we have to look at it that. -- however that the state is changing in various places here in central Virginia for example. You know racism are much more competitive than they used to be Republicans. We don't get nearly as you can at least I have. And that's also affecting the outcome of these. Statewide races most of the attention during the presidential rituals focused right here central Virginia is spending on here around Richmond. And over chesterfield -- Because it is a swing area increasingly itself yet what Virginia is crucial. Any Republican who wants to win -- hold down the big vote totals that Democrats get up there. But other parts of the state who -- forums state or -- he also pretty significant in terms statewide. The Associated Press has some exit polling that said and I'll -- direct from the article here quote. The -- seemed. Neither candidates ideological views seem to write for a majority of Virginians 50% called coach noted -- conservative 41% said McAuliffe is too liberal. Does that become the asterisk that says we can't necessarily. Look at this race and interpret something national out of it. I agree apparently I don't think he's now I don't know what the national implications are if I I think term -- office two rubles for the state of the game. To put the median position. But the differences that he was able to kind of argued that he was more pragmatic. And in other words his views -- -- things like. Gay marriage and abortion are probably the left of the middle -- just like Coachella the right of the battle but she was able. To really define who -- -- out of the mainstream anti politician. Who is an ideologue -- pragmatic. He would you define himself and oh yeah along liberal. But I'm also practice you know law on economics and some of the things that so I think he kind of hit the sweet spot generally. Well being able to mobilize his speech armed liberal on the position but also -- capture but -- -- because -- fuel. Portrayal more pragmatic. And I think in some of the comments I heard from him he kind of use that as as as the template. But it sounds as if you're saying one doesn't exist he he can't take their formula and shop but out to some of the house races next year and he. No not in not not so much Virginia I mean every -- he basically took a very hard core base -- go negative certainly spark for senator that would make it the actor had. That inspired the left the Democrats. Each week in the you know independent turn out. On and Republicans just want to unify have to go back. In your Republicans weren't unify the tension because essentially it was big battle. -- -- -- -- And so by Republicans were turned off by that he exploited that to the -- I don't know what that doable in every race is still quote some races. But I did think the question here Virginia is it that the formula that Democrats are gonna continue to be used to that kind of formality since 2008. And you know tribal belt I won't tell what that what some of the centrist voters go to the persons in the middle. Aren't the issue it's boring jobs and socialization. And I suppose that work but it economy and -- healthcare can be Larry. I don't know that it I don't know that you can continue to replicate -- Obamacare is going to be a major issue in the future outlook. 2014 elections here in Virginia and nationally and I don't think this election as well. Be no dominant toward the issues in this election. So despite what McAuliffe says about. Figuring this thing out and and finding the console with which to -- Republicans. It's sounds if you're saying obamacare trumps all or most -- Well I think he founded with the selection. For the issues in this election cycle given the imbalance that he had in terms resource that about the -- I think this. In every senate race -- how race like it -- game. And especially if you look at some of these sort of Republican leaning states that senator to represent. All you know in Louisiana and Arkansas or North Carolina Alaska. Big east the east. States. You know -- not gonna be as susceptible to this type of politics. And that's why I'd say health fears -- -- we amber is going to emerge it and then if you are very important in defining these people's races that. All right great stuff fled to join us this morning. Sure that's got to thank you that's doctor Daniel palace solo at the University of Richmond.