Oct 11, 2016|
Automatically Generated Transcript (may not be 100% accurate)
Carol calabrese is in studio with us this morning from. This yellow mark Tucci calabrese & Associates political strategist talking about the campaign Carlton Don. A trump I mean let's face it he is taking a real beating. And a lot of the stuff let's let's be honest as self inflicted no question. And he's been hurt by them no question but this has to be hurting other people to his family other political candidates campaign team. Has to be re having let's talk about the backlash. Associated with what's going let's just go Beckham off did Donald Trump came out of August down 89 points. And then in September began a very focused and disciplined campaign. Giving some very comprehensive and thorough policy addresses on crime and the economy and foreign policy. And and what happened we saw him pull even in some polls go ahead. Both head to head nationally and in the key states he had a very solid month of September. Talking about issues that are important to the American people specially the economy. And then all of a sudden the debate came in if you were called. Prior to debate I said her number one job in strategy is going to beat it to bait him. In the chasing rabbits K and his number one job in strategy will be to avoid taking debate well. She baited him and he took it and we spent a week talking about. The weight of a former miss universe OK the thing about that going from September. Talking about the economy and terrorism and immigration to the weight of a of a former miss universe. And what's happened. She has now opened up an eight point lead and I just looked at the top ten states the battleground states. Where they were dead even a month ago. She now leads in nine of the ten of them. But in in some cases like Pennsylvania which was within two points at one at one time she now has opened up a neat to have point lead so. This has been a very bad month worked as as Susan said we're what 29 days away 28 days away. From the actual election. He has got to get refocused I think his his only chance to win this thing. It is number 22 things he has two chances one he's got to get back to that September model he's got to start talking again about. Policy. Where the Obama administration has let us and how he's going to fix it and she's not. And he's got to kind of hope for this what I called Spartacus factor of mentioned this before your show the new original movies Spartacus with Kirk Douglas at the end he's he's bailing the Romans he thinks he's winning. And all of a sudden and two hills overlooking the battlefield. Two Roman army show up that he had no idea was we were there and he loses. Trump is betting on hoping praying. For a Spartacus Specter that there are millions of people out there who did not vote in the 2012 election. He's right there's twelve to fourteen million of them. Who are not. Being polled because they're not likely voters he's hoping and praying that these people are gonna register and they're gonna show up. And they're gonna do to American polls with the British voters that the British polls during the Breck sit. Debate and show that they're just wrong that they're not wrong they're just not measuring. The real picture so that's his hope it's it's kind of a swing for the fences but if he's gonna win this thing at this point I think that's gonna have to come into play. I mean is there a segment of the country that doesn't make me trust the pollsters and they will either. Not Interpol or tell them something wrong lied to them about who they're voting. That's a variation in question and and there's some data that says yes say it started back I believe in the eighties in California and it's actually named Ford is is called Bradley factor. The the mirror of of Los Angeles and Bradley was running for governor he's an African American. And what they found was is that people were reluctant to say on to a pollster on the phone that they. We're not intending to vote. Against an African American for his opponent. It was called the Bradley Effect they thought it was worth three or four points there's a similar effect in Britain in Britain conservatives are called Torre's. And they have concluded that there's too. That's what they called the shy Torre effect that Tories in England. When call by a pollster will not. Tell me what they have that they're thinking they simply say I'm undecided and they think that's worth four or five points in the polls and and that is what they they believe. Was the driving force behind the upset in the bricks to vote was he shy Torre's. Really intending to vote to get out of the European Union but when called by pollsters saying I'm undecided so it they're very well could be but remember. In wood up the case I'm talking about is not so much people. Being reluctant to tell a pollster I'm talking about people who aren't even being called because they're not likely voters they didn't vote. In the 2008 and 2012 election so they're not on anybody's radar screen now a third gonna register and the reports are that of voter registration especially Republican registration. In many of these key battleground states is soaring. If that's the case that his hope and and that that could produce a surprise but that's the big X-Factor by all conventional measurements today. She is odds on favorite to win this race by conventional measurements what we can measure today when I'm talking about a something that. We can't measure and won't be able to measure until we see them make up of the of the voter turnout. Girl always group chat when you are things Republican strategist Karl caliber of Carlos to have a local firm messy album or Tucci calories.