May 1, 2016|
Automatically Generated Transcript (may not be 100% accurate)
Now I wanted to talk for this next half hour about the vice presidency. You saw earlier this week that in a really kind of unprecedented move long before the convention. Ted Cruz has announced that Carly Fiorina will be his pick for vice president. Donald Trump of course and on the other side Hillary Clinton or Bernie Sanders none of them have put that any names out there officially or made this kind of a definitive announcement. But doesn't matter. There's been some studies on this issue and factors an entire book written on it it's called the VP advantage how running mates influence home state voting in presidential elections. And both of the authors of the book are here now Christopher DeVine is with us along with Kyle cop go. Divides a professor of political science at Mount Vernon now as a green university outside Columbus. Kyle cup goes with us from Elizabeth town college where he's also professor of political science that's in Lancaster County PA gentlemen thanks for joining us ledger here. I'm looking at an article that actually quotes you Kyle cop goes all start with you the quote is. Statistically. The effect of a running mates electoral appeal. In their home state. Is zero explain. Sure well what we did is we examined a variety of data sources stating all the way back to 1984 just to see if there's this overarching effect. Where vice presidential candidate delivers more votes. In their home states and by and large there's no statistical fact using a multitude of statistical methods. We don't find it the only time that we can find. Vice presidential home state advantage it's a conditional effect whenever someone comes from the pretty small state. And whenever they have a lot of experience. As an elected official in that state to thirty they're able to win over the hearts and minds of their constituents and their neighbors. So it that would be someone like Joseph Biden in 2008 you know we come from the very small state he's an institution. Within state politics. You know so many don't like Ed Muskie from Maine in 1968 he would take that type of profile as well also. The ironic thing about that is. You could potentially get a vice presidential home state advantage under is narrow conditions but with. They're being small states they have fewer Electoral College that's hazard just diminishing. Return. And it's very likely to influence the outcome of election. So the idea that say Donald Trump could add John Casey can take Ohio or had Marco Rubio and take all important Florida. That doesn't watch according to your research. No way that we don't find so much support at all hurt that take that reasoning to be perfectly honest no look we do you find though is. Presidential candidates on the other hand. Do you enjoy. A significant home state advantage it varies depending on time period in what you're either Republican or Democrat. But generally the data bear out that between three and seven percentage points could be added an armed state for presidential candidate as opposed to a place presidential candidate. Professor divine you your colleague touched on a little bit and elaborate on the methodology how did you come up above us. Sure how we got this free weights or not reliant on one. You know neither his wallet without. Disputed traditional measure which I get short describing it. How much did that. Eight deviate from its usual voting trend in comparison to how that nation was eating its normal voted Trent. They're we get an average of about point 7%. That they but. And you calpers statistical significant other or can we say rest fiscal standpoint that we can you know rule out actual practice hero. Cannot rule it out so I hope that this creature is here. Secondly we will look at that state level data. And do with Scott a Linear regression process. Where we can count was the end of an effective coming from onstage or the other factors. That we could display control or insert one and one I think is most important here is that out we use individual level. Survey data so other degrade series of elections basic OPEC Nike if you. Although the American national elections state of the premier. Database. Or date set for. Elect oral. Researcher in political science. And what's import using that is all previous studies of this means some subsequent. And use only state level data and analyze what actually individual choice. You know with when you're sitting individuals do you want to be able actually look at individual say your honest person voted. Compared to you know what person's party is in and well what region that person comes from it and other income or so on. We're able to be used to it out by using the the survey data and also the tests so other things that help sort of fight patterns so. You know all the research otherwise this focus on the people vote differently because the running mate are on state or that narrowed presidential candidates are on state. Well by using a survey data from any out. We can also look at other outcomes like what people are likely to vote at all. An election where they are more likely to get involved in the campaign of donate money go to rallies. Influence or neighbors and so on in across. All those measures would it with one miner section if you care more about the election across all those measures. We just consistent pattern there's just. Know that where there is at least her vote short for the presidential. Candidate which goes to our underlying point that people vote for presidential candidate. Upper running mate that's why it matters the presidential candidate comes from your home state. And not really if the vice presidential candidate does. And we're in unprecedented territory here now with Ted Cruz announcing so early. But is there anything in your research that speaks to the choice of Carly Fiorina. While we're in the primaries I'm looking at delegate totals and thinking he probably needs California and Darnell she's from there. Right yeah it and that's. It's unprecedented there's no way we can specifically researching how to running may help during primary. We're now you're you're narrowing the population from the general electorate to that specific party. Electorate so you know. We we we can't marshaling gate at the comment specifically on that we could say it's generally don't get the homes in effect also like California is the biggest state. So it's it's the least likely really. What that kind of home state advantage. You know particularly as it if someone were coming from New York City. In buffalo are eager really feel strongly attached person. So if you arena has roots in Silicon Valley in India ago. People care I really doubt that now without primary they do awards and delegates by congressional district. So it is possible that she could have more localized effect it would be statewide California fact it'd be maybe at you know so on ballot or her out. Area a fact. Which skated checkers stickier for that reason. Or that's in narrow the criterion we're first like Iran may. Sure Christian or divine is here along with Kyle cop go they're both professors of political science Christopher's and answering universe excuse me Mount Vernon as a mean university. Outside Columbus. Doctor copter was with Elizabeth town college in Elizabeth town Pennsylvania. If you'd like to join the conversation would you have phone lines open there with us for about another fifteen minutes or so. 803 on 930s the number if you'd like to weigh in and just offer an opinion and bounced off the guys week in this certainly do that. Talk to me about demographics if if a running mate choice doesn't influence. The victory margin in the particular state that they're running mate is from. Do things like whether the person's Hispanic or not matter there's been a lot of talk about Hillary Clinton perhaps picking. Thomas Perez from Western New York here he's a Hispanic or perhaps picking Julian Castro he's also a Hispanic. Would that or anything like that and up boasting a vote with the Hispanic community. That's really great question and and we just subsequent analysis after we wrote the book on this Gary issue we saw something posted at the monkey cage here the Washington Post. Last week. It is long story short we find it very similar pattern that's what we found with a home state advantage finding. What we did was we use the American national election studies again to try to determine its city women were more likely two has favorable view of Geraldine Ferraro for example in 1984. Sarah Palin in 2008. And thinking with Catholics says Sargent Shriver for example back in Sydney too he's Catholic. Vice presidential candidates thinking that Geraldine Ferraro Joseph Biden. Paul Ryan. And then also in 2000 Joseph Lieberman being the first Jewish. Vice presidential candidates. By and large we see this pattern where. Voters feel more favorably if there is a member of the seeing groups of Catholic voters feel you know more favorably about Sargent Shriver. And a female voters feel more favorably about Geraldine Ferraro. But it doesn't necessarily translate into the votes. Now at the end of the day. And this cute contract with the presidential candidates so in 1960 lease the Catholics coming out. In strong force afford John F. Kennedy the first Catholic presidential candidate. We see African Americans. You know strongly supporting Barack Obama. In 2008 and 2012. Cylinders just remarkably similar pattern here. Between home state advantage. Findings in demographic findings snell. We haven't obviously had. Hispanic or Latino the vice presidential candidate Herman major party to date by. If we use these state as an example. Who it is not a sure thing by any stretch that they as vice presidential candidates. Would deliver a higher percentage of the Latino vote. I think at least this time around would say that Hillary Clinton did decide to complexity either going Castro. Or Tom Perez as her running mate. There may be a higher percentage as the Latino vote coming out but it is status cases might also be due to other actors speak. Besides the vice presidential candidate immigration. Has been a very very big issue particularly in the Republican primary. And we're already seen trend where more and more of Latino voters are registering. And Democrats because of that period should they feel turned off by the Republican Party in the past few months Philly it might not necessarily be due to. The running mate colleague each of these other issues that are being debated by the presidential candidates. 803 on 930s or number if you'd like to join us were chatting with Christopher DeVine and Kyle cup co. Both are political science professor is both the authors of the VP advantage how running Maine's influence home state voting in presidential elections. Gonna take quick break we'll be back for some of your calls we do have a few lines open two of they're beginning to commend now so if you'd like to jump onboard this would be good time. 8030930s. And number stay with us more to come it's hard line on news radio 930 WB yen. It's hard line on news radio 930 WB and is Dave Tivo. We're trying about the vice presidency and whether it really matters on the campaign trail specifically in the states where the vice president is the selected from. Wondering in that regard whether Carly Fiorina really moved the meter and places like California. I've got to researchers here Christopher DeVine and Kyle cop go they're both political science professors they both together written a book that says. I'll running mates home state. Does not become a factor in previous elections at all let's go to the phones they don't three on 930 John in Rochester kick it off force here on the high. They gave papers. I yeah I agree with your our conclusions in general what do I think the exception maybe. There's trial. Candidate because Ohio if that's going to be if the Republicans well I was going to be razor thin and I think. Case they could make its efforts the other boat report always gravity yes selected. Orion. I think you really huge mistake because that Grammy Louis Florida it is but he would have taken rubio. It is which presidential candidate because of one Florida and well. The last question according their researchers some of them probably wouldn't happen the guys tackled the first part there. Pursuant to get. Sure so in both cases I I I agree I think indicates that it is this summit seem like Hewitt delivered excited anti. I live in Ohio it in effect for central priority over here now and a basics from. He's well Ricardo in a lot of ways. And so on the primary here. What people vote differently because of it in and our research certainly suggest that it doesn't mean just based on the data are you know impression that things but. The data bear out that I'm I'm a large state. You know to get an advantage physically speaking at your vote and you know it will look like that that's possible but so that we can detect. Two victory analysis we find no evidence of that where we do find in the smaller states took for both Ohio and Florida. As much as you like that might be attractive to voters it that's the case then again at the data are. Area now that there are small states it might be different and chicks explain why that's the case sitting here is this the other question about sort from New York being on the ballot in India you're looking at buffalo in order your Rochester. You know what that means a lot you. And you know and bigger stage you have more purse identity I'm sure you still quite a disconnect. It yet to like both state and kind dynamic New York City. A little comfort New York City and they don't share your identity. It apart striving that's kind of a back again. People are gonna be voting for presidential candidates first to get its say you know this year I want to vote for Hillary Clinton. Of course she's from New York that different dynamic but you know there are quite well I want gonna vote for Barack Obama. But then he chose this person on my state and now I'm gonna vote differently. I mean that's something for. You know most about your that it I think about that process it's hard to. Relate Q we can expect that more from. You know that that the mass of voters but I like to adapt myself what I vote differently on this basis and I think it takes so I I really had a strong attachment to. Which is gonna happen more easily in a small state that's logic of this Joseph Biden from Delaware I mean. Allstate and homogeneous identity you know that they're the ones smaller they are a member congress electoral votes. But they're. I considered there's as much stronger sense of Delaware identity in an area of New York State identity and that's more just put up by a different regents. This is one of the first here's this one of the first here's where we'll have a contested Republican Convention and a long time. Can we in anyway make the case to me it seems like we could that. The selection of a running mate before the convention. Quote help get someone the delegates for example if trump tossed his lot in with John case sicker Marco Rubio. Candidates that could bring delegates to the convention and at least push them across that. That part of the process is finish line now. That's the million dollar question to be on Ashton and it is now we're moving from how voters make their political choice as to how political week. You know the officers within year county Republican committees state Republican committees. So on and so for. And we just don't know that's the thing about facility HR in case it might have some sway within delegates which in Ohio if you were to be selected. Sound bite. Maybe maybe yet pays off we just don't. Now I think it hasn't happened enough for you to be able to research it right righteous. So implode you know within the modern political area is very different then you know it last time we had a contest to Republican Convention was 1976. Ronald Reagan and Jerry Ford great. So did the dynamic of campaigning. Have changed dramatically and that kind national political identities and and party platforms. Have changed dramatically. In that period I'm sort we're really entering into unchartered territory here. All right let's try to squeeze in this last one quickly Bob and buffalo you're on. Yet. Quick question. It's speaker of the house of the movie usually we chart Boehner has called crucial sort of shaking. Was ordered held at. Affection or Carly Fiorina. And Tony Chester. It is going to jail overwrought. That's priorities were Jewish children struggle for via banking scandal would show was because of the of our program. For giving checks which should ensure. Waive their equipment. And there was a bull Clinton in the same problem. There's any Estrich what is although it was what you have sharks but he did go before of the nation and its street that he did not if sex with a woman and Hillary. All right at quickly guys I know the questions a lot bigger than the time we have left but tackle to the degree can. Sure I think it's it's an interesting question and you know this is one of the reasons why political outsiders like trump. The folks like cruises and even from the late Bernie Sanders he's you know markets in itself is not part of the political leaders. Our you know really. Benefiting this election cycle why they're doing so well it's it's because there's past scandals because you know. Past party leaders haven't been able to deliver on political priorities. Whether that has a big effect on voters' decisions. Remains to be seen. I think we should have John for a full hour both of you thank you Christopher DeVine and Kyle cup go good stuff enjoy it. I.